The ancient blessing that is actually a curse, "May you live in interesting times", is not actually Chinese. After doing some quick research (aka Google), it appears to be a term coined by Austen Chamberlain, a British statesman, and transmitted to the popular culture through the autobiography of Hughe Knatchbull-Hugessen, the British Ambassador to China, or Frederic R. Coudert in a speech given to the Proceeding of the Academy of Political Science. It may even have originated with Joseph Chamberlain, father to the aforementioned Austen Chamberlain, who was British Colonial Secretary at the turn of the 19th century and did have some dealings with China. But it is not the history of the phrase that interests me so much as how I have been using this phrase and attributing it incorrectly for the past 20 or so years, and the fact that I have been using this phrase at all let alone for the past 20 years.
It doesn't take a political scientist or PhD in economics to know that 2020 is going to go down as a particularly "interesting" year, with an estimated 34% drop in GDP and exponentially growing unemployment problem with a broken social safety net for both the unemployed and business owners due to inherent structural limitations. And that whole pandemic thing.
The federal government seems devoid of any real solutions to this crisis. Congress appears to be considering another "kick the can down the road a couple more months" solution, while the administration's latest attempt to tackle the problem is, to paraphrase a Twitter user, "like Gilligan's Island where the same 7 people have to do everything and all they have is coconuts". Meanwhile, big business bailouts with the last bill has gotten Reason Magazine (those most reasonable of reasoning reasoners) to ask the question: Did the $50 Billion Coronavirus Bailouts Effectively Nationalize America's Commercial Airlines? (Betteridge's law of headlines applies, so the answer is "no".)
Back in 2011 I caught an interesting episode of This American Life (latte-drinking coastal liberal intellectual that I am) where they discussed the fallout from the 2008 banking collapse. It started with describing the people of the island of Yap, way out in the Pacific Ocean, and ended with the Fed opening the window here at home. But what it was really all about was the fiction that is money. It is worth a listen...
If money is just a fiction, something we collectively grant value, and we all agree that we don't have enough of it, then maybe a formal fat-stacks-of-cash jubilee year on all bank based debt is a great way tackle the problem. (Michael Hudson at the Washington Post with A debt jubilee is the only way to avoid a depression.) Maybe a dividend check to every American from the profit the Fed made since buying all those assets in 2008. (That one is my own stupid idea from right here.)
One thing is for sure, inflation is a cakewalk to manage compared to deflation. Even the industry magazine American Banker seems to worry that the Fed isn't designed to manage deflation, and this was already a concern before the emergency. American Banker's bottom line in the podcast is that the Fed's ability to control inflation is all just "... a tinker bell thing if we all clap our hands and believe inflation will be 2% then it will be 2%". If true, that money's relative value is a "tinker bell" fiction we all just "clap our hands", then unrestrained spending isn't all that of a big deal all things considered (also on NPR and why yes I do own a Volvo why do you ask).
Of course there are alternatives to the make it rain approach. For example, former Reagan economic adviser and living Jan Op De Beeck drawing Art Laffer (famous for something-de-oh-oh economics) has a plan that amounts to "the beatings will continue until moral improves". And important people are listening.
At least Boris Johnson is out of intensive care. There's some hope for fat guys with bad hair after all.